« Archives in November, 2004

This Dream Would Make More Sense If I Watched More TV

I am on the starship Enterprise, from the Next Generation TV show (a fine show, even if “certain people”:http://brenditabonita.blogspot.com/ think it’s boring). We find a spaceship (is it an alternative Enterprise? I’m not sure) stuck in between two dimensions, partially in ours and partially in another. This ship moves close to us to transfer its crew over; “it must be so horrible to be trapped between dimensions, they’ll try anything,” says Captain Picard.
Their ship touches ours, at the bottom of our saucer section, then winks out of existence. Picard and I ride the turbolift down to see who we’ve taken on board. At the bottom of the turbolift shaft, the door doesn’t open; I am about to force it when Picard pushes on the door; it flexes in and out like the safety button in the middle of a juice bottle’s cap. The area outside is depressurized; the bottom two levels of the saucer section were opened to space when the other ship disappeared. If I had opened the turbolift door, Picard and I would have been killed.
After a few anxious moments, the turbolift takes us back up to the bottom “living” level. I comment how awful it would have been to get stuck down at the bottom floor; Picard agrees.
Now the day is over, so I leave the turbolift and go to sleep on my bunk, a hospital gurney in the middle of the deck, which is open from one end of the ship to the other. Nobody is there. I turn out the lights. In the middle of the night I wake up with the feeling somebody is watching me. Nobody is there, but there’s a tricorder on the floor, its screen glowing in the darkness.
Are the people from the other ship really gone? Am I really alone?















The 15-Point Solution

As I mentioned, my fantasy football season has included “a lot more getting my butt kicked”:http://juniorbird.com/archives/000851.html than I had anticipated. Well, it’s one thing to lose, and it’s another thing to lose without a plan. And that’s what I was doing: losing without a plan! At least with a plan I’d have, ya know, at a minimum the plan itself.
So, what plan could I possibly have? Well, of the five games I lost, four were lost by more than 10 but less than 15 points (the other was lost by about 0.75 points, which translates to about 15 yards of offense, for those who are counting — bad, but one of my friends lost a game by 0.2 points which is even worse!). So, the obvious question was, how could I get an average of 15 points a game? Thus, the 15-point solution.
The 15-point solution had three phases:
# Upgrade my defense
# Stop starting Tom Brady, who’s a good QB but is reliable, as opposed to stellar
# Trade for a quality #2 reciever to replace my #3, Keary Colbert, and a reliable producer of a tight end
Step 1 was fulfilled when I upgraded from Seattle to free-agent Cincinatti, which both has a weaker schedule and seems to be hitting its stride.
Step 2 consisted of picking Drew Brees up out of free agency, to complement the other QB I drafted, Jake Plummer.
Step 3 was the complicated one. But, fortunately, one of the other teams in my league desperately needed a real quarterback (going all the way with Matt Hasselbeck? Nope.) and, with Priest Holmes, needed my backup RB Derrick Blaylock as a backup. I didn’t need Blaylock or Brady, so this was a no-downside trade for me (unless the other team beats me in the playoffs, I guess). In return, I got TE stud Alge Crumpler and reliable WR Derrick Mason.
So what’s the upside for me? Well, this last week I won by about 10.5 points. If I hadn’t had Crumpler and Mason, I would have lost by 3. That’s a win already from this trade! And the numbers look good for the future. Over the last 4 weeks:
* Cincinatti is almost +3 points/game
* Crumpler is more than +1 point/game (and better than that over the whole season)
* Mason is almost +16 points/game
* Brees is about +1.5 points/game (and better than that over the whole season)
So, on average, the 15-point solution wil bring me 21.5 points/week. That’s sure to bring me some wins. Or, at least, give me the comfort of having a plan. And the plan itself.















If Life Is Like A Box Of Chocolates, Then Business School Is Like A Portfolio Of Risky Securities

On one level, it’s a little disturbing that my high-effort, high-stress business school experience can be reduced to such a simple, clear, and exactly descriptive metaphor. On the other hand, it’s convenient, and we’re all about efficacy and efficiency at b-school. So, here it is. Businees school really _is_ like a portfolio of risky securities!
In a major exception from my usual practice, I’m actually going to try and explain what it is that all this means. What, 2/3 of my readers are asking, is a portfolio of risky securities? Well, it’s pretty much what it sounds like: it’s a stock portfolio. An agglomeration of stocks that you — yes, you — own. It’s risky because, well, stocks are risky. They might be worth more tomorrow, they might be worth less, so you might end up with a profit or a loss on your stock transaction. The individual stocks change value in certain ways, and the whole portfolio changes value in related ways that I’ll get into later. Make sense?
So, how is b-school like a portfolio of risky securities? Well, imagine that the market return — the return you’d make if you invested in all of the stocks in the market — is the mean return from business school, mean return being some function of grade, activity leadership, and job placement. Just like you want your portfolio’s return to exceed the market return, you want your b-school return to exceed the mean return of your classmates. Just like in the stock market, you don’t want to make more than other people because you want those others to lose; you want to make more because more is good (stop me before I go all Gordon Gekko here).
In the stock market, you can increase your returns by investing in riskier securities (riskier securities have a greater return than securities with lower risk because the market demands more return for putting up with the risk, so the companies represented by the securities have to step up and deliver high returns or be unable to raise money by issuing more equity, or stock). In business school, you can learn more by taking harder classes, or by being more involved in activities, or by looking harder for a job. All of these increase your risk because they take time away from other activities, leaving you open to not getting such good grades, or not getting a job or internship, or letting your clubmates down. If you’re overcommitted, you can get some great experience but you can also flunk out.
Now, with a portfolio of securities, you try to get securities that don’t all vary in the same way. If you own an airline stock, whose value may go down if the price of oil (and, thus, jet fuel) increases, you can “hedge” your portfolio by also owning, say, ExxonMobil, whose value will go up if the price of oil goes up. You can do the same in b-school too; I may take two Marketing classes to balance out the effect on my GPA of taking another Finance class, for instance. You try to balance out the potential gain in knowledge but loss in GPA by taking easier classes from which you may learn less.
It can get more complicated than that, too. If you own stock in a company and you think the company could make more money if they took on more debt, you can effectively take on that debt on behalf of the company by borrowing to buy that company’s stock. If you can borrow money at the same rate as the company, what’s the difference between owning 100 shares of stock in a company that’s borrowed 40% of its value and owning 100 shares of stock in a company that’s not borrowed anything but you borrowed 40% of the value of the shares? None, it turns out. You can leverage your b-school portfolio too. Think a course isn’t giving you enough knowledge transfer? Take on more of the group work and learn more, but at a cost of borrowing time from your other activities.
Now, in the stock market, there’s an ideal portfolio for you — based on the market’s return and your tolerance for risk you build up a set of stocks. Is there an ideal portfolio for a b-school student? Perhaps one can pick the classes and activities that offer the best balance of learning and experience and a tolerable risk of flunking out and driving yourself to complete exhaustion. Most students already understand the concept of hedging a hard class with an easy one, and most students already understand the concept of leveraging their educational experience by putting more or less effort into different classes. Seems reasonable, then, that we could model an ideal class schedule. A good challenge for me next semester, when I get to pick my electives for the fall, eh?















Tivo Owners: Relax Please

So TiVo recently announced that “they’re going to run banner ads when you fast forward through ads”:http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/la-et-tivo17nov17,1,7409270.story. The “blogosphere”:http://www.pvrblog.com/pvr/2004/11/tivo_to_add_ban.html “went”:http://www.brianbehrend.com/archives/2004/11/tivo_to_add_ban.php “wild”:http://battellemedia.com/archives/001050.php, not least becase of the LA Times’ inflammatory headline, “TiVo Will No Longer Skip Past Advertisers”.
TiVo is all about the next generation of TV watching, so it’s natural that, during the product’s evolution, there will be changes, and these changes will make some people uncomfortable. But this seems like an authencally good idea, with little downside for either viewers or advertisers.
All PVRs (or DVRs), including TiVo, make advertisers scared, for two reasons:
* PVRs let users fast-forward through ads, thereby ignoring marketing prodtimeucts that cost millions of dollars to produce and place
* PVrs let users watch TV shows at unexpected times (“-shifting”), which can mess with demographic predictions
Viewers love PVRs, because:
* PVRs let viewers fast-forward through ads
* PVRs let viewers watch shows when they want to watch shows
Clearly, we have two stakeholders whose interests are in complete opposition, right? Maybe not, if we think about what these stakeholders actually want, when it comes to ads.
* Advertisers want viewers to attend to, and retain, their ads
* Viewers want their desired content to be interrupted as little as possible while they watch TV
That second one is very important. It’s not about ads, per se, for viewers; it’s simply that viewers, quite naturally, want to see their show uninterrupted. Who actually likes interruptions? Users don’t fast-forward because they hate ads, users fast-forward because they hate being taken away from their desired content. Most of these fast-forwarding users happily watched 30-minute ads for products like GI Joe, The Transformers, He-Man, “Captain Power”:http://www.captainpower.com/, and other products like that; in those cases, the ads were the content, and nobody complained or tried to skip them simply because they were being sold to.
The fast-forward banner ad does a good job of fulfilling both advertisers’ and viewers’ needs. Viewers get minimal interruption. Advertisers get an ad that will be closely-attended as the user focuses on fast-forwarding only through the ads and not through the show. This is a great solution for a new way of advertising.















A Mentor? For Me?

The Marshall Career Development Office has a program in which, every year, they match a small number of students with volunteer alumni mentors. About a month ago, on somwhat of a lark, I applied.
It was a lark because I didn’t really think I’d get it. There are a ton of qualified, ultra-competitive people in my class, and I figured they’d be right on the ball; there are also a number of really bright career-switchers who could use a push in the right direction. Between those two groups, what kind of a chance does a middle-of-the road, reasonably erudite, reasonably set-in-his-ways marketer stand?
Well, I’m always one for a fight, so I put my hat in the ring. Even wrote my first ever “non-crappy cover letter”:http://cleverbird.com/pwyky/CoverLetter for it. And, apparently I got the mentor; out of over 90 applicants, I was one of just 19 selected.
So I now have a really talented alumni mentor, a smart guy who started his own communications business that finds really interesting and unique approaches to marketing. I’m very much looking forward to meeting him and learning new ways to approach the marketing industry. Maybe he can help me find a unique way to package me! At any rate, it’s great to have another opportunity to take everything that Marshall offers. Now, if only Marshall was better at offering a good night’s sleep!















Arafatrospective

I can understand a lot of the choices that Yasser Arafat made during his lifetime. He probably understood quite early on how his people were being used by both the Arabs and the Israelis to justify various political policies, and that none of these policies would improve the lot of his people. Why not choose, under these circumstances, to try and take over first Jordan and then Lebanon? Of course, as with his stewardship of the Palestinian Authority, it all came to pieces in the end.
So what will Arafat be remembered for? For leading his people for so many decades, yes, but also for destroying the Lebanese state — a shining beacon of freedom and commercial success in the Middle East — for his years of virtual exile in Tunisia, for Sabra and Shatila, for the years the Israelis confined him to his complex in the Gaza that he supposedly ruled. Will future schoolchildren see the picture of Clinton standing between Arafat and Rabin at Wye River and see no success there at all?
Sadly so. It’s a pity, but Arafat’s death was the only thing that could lead to any re-start of the Middle East peace process. Both Bush and Sharon came into power on a ticket that said, basically, “we don’t trust Arafat and don’t intend to deal with him.” How could Arafat bring his people a state under those circumstances?
Abandoning Arafat was an odd decision, just seven years after Israel and America had put him in charge of the new Palestinian state that they had created. Arafat had failed to end terrorism; but Palestine and Israel suffered about what the British called in Ireland an “acceptable level of violence.” It’s not clear that Arafat ever wanted to fully neuter the terrorists — they were, after all, his only weapon. It was also never clear that one can expect a people who had lived in a state of resistance for 40 years to suddenly abandon their way of life and become a peaceful, democratic state within just a few years. But, then, there’s a set of people in America who think it natural that African-Americans should be able to easily overcome 400 years of oppression after only 30 years of official (if not actual) non-oppression. I dare say that our President falls within this group, so it’s at least logically consistent that he should think that the Palestinians can give up, pretty much instaneously, their history of living in resistance.
Arafat certainly couldn’t give up living in resistance. He never put aside the guerilla’s lifestyle or, more importantly, the guerilla’s constant focus on having another option. Guerillas must always be able to “bug out” so they always need to have a Plan B in case the regular army shows up in the middle of Plan A. Arafat tried to keep too many Plan Bs open, especially by re-starting the Intifada and supporting the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. Unfortunately, the peacemaker has to put all of his eggs in one basket — not least because after burning your bridges, you can’t retreat. The Intifada was definitely a retreat, althouh an understandable one with Sharon’s election.
But, in the end, he’s dead, and Bush has re-dedicated himself to the Middle East Peace Process, at least publicly. Perhaps, in history, Arafat will be remembered as the last Palestinian leader to not also be Head Of State.















You Say Finance, I Say Finance

Finance scares the stuffing out of me. Not only is it hard and often non-intuitive, it’s also something I’d like to be good at. Budgeting, planning, starting and buying companies — all of these are applications of Finance. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if I had any idea what I was doing in the class? I’ve got a midterm tomorrow and I haven’t a clue as to what grade I might get.
Now, there’s plenty of other liberal arts majors at Marshall, so that at least gives me hope that there’s a bunch of people out there in the same boat as me. But who wants to count on their friends’ failure to make them look good in comparison?
And then there’s the people who, no matter what, will make me look bad — the former market analysts, bond traders, and portfolio managers. But I know how to be as good as them. You see, I’ve watched carefully, I’ve paid attention to all of the little things, and I’ve learned something tremendously important. Something that may change the way that Finance is taught forever. Something that will allow you, the reader at home, to also become as good at Finance as the professionals. This secret, provided to you by this blog at absoloutely no added charge, is:
# Liberal arts majors all say “fEYE-nance”
# People who’ve worked in the Finance industry all say “FIHnance”
# Therefore, to be good at Finance, one must learn to always say “FIHnance”
It’s a simple method, and I’m sure it will work; the correlation between pronunciation and past employment (and thus skill in the area) is simply too strong. While my classmates have been wasting hours with past years’ tests and textbook problems, I’ve been practicing my pronunciation. Tomorrow I’m going in there, saying “Yes, Professor Draper, I’m ready for my FIHnance midterm,” and Professor Draper will give me a knowing look, I’ll be implicitly welcomed into the brotherhood of Those Who Understand Finance, and, my test, well, I’ll undoubtedly get the grade I so richly deserve.















At This Point, The Only Fantasy Left Is Winning

There’s two minutes to go, the evil Colts have the ball, and my only hope for a win is that the Vikings’ tight end Jermaine Wiggins scores two touchdowns. My fantasy Fantasy season has turned into a weekly sob story.
It’s not that I drafted badly; and given that I only had five minutes to prepare for my draft, that’s quite a surprise. It’s that I bench the wrong players. After a four-game winning streak, I’ve now lost five in a row. Four out of those five games, including this week’s, I’ve had enough points to win sitting on the bench. And it’s not the same person on the bench either; This week I would have won had I started Jake Plummer over Tom Brady, but, three weeks ago, I lost by starting Plummer over Brady. I lost one game because I thought Quentin Griffin would pull out one last start before giving over to Reuben Droughns.
This week, I really thought I could win it. After two weeks I finally had Jamal Lewis back. I finally had a reliable tight end. I finally actually had three working wide recievers. And it turned out well! I’ve got the second-highest point total for the week in my league and I think that’ll keep through the night. Sadly, I managed to go up against the guy with the highest point total for the week.
Next week had been a gimme, against a guy who was 1-6 but lately he’s turned that into 3-6 and is looking strong. Sadly I’ve got some key players off next week so, since he’s turned it around, I’m almost guaranteed to lose next week, bringing me to 4-6. Can I run the table to make it to the playoffs? Probably not.
How do I pick better starters? Could I have had a more sure thing than Jake Plummer vs. the Bengals? Tom Brady vs. the Rams’ non-existent secondary? Should I have not benched Plummer vs. the Falcons’ (then) league-leading pass defense? The answer is clear: sure things suck. You don’t win with sure things. And that’s how I drafted, too, so I should know this lesson already. I drafted for the players’ upside, which is how I ended up with Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, Quentin Griffin, and Reuben Droughns. And, yes, how I ended up with the suddenly ultra-productive Plummer. I need to play that way every week. I’ve been playing to minimize variance, which has led to me starting ol’ reliable Tom Brady when I should have been taking a chance on Plummer or Brees. So there’s the answer: variance up, risk up, rewards up. Let’s see where it takes me.
And next year it’s all about Excel and statistical models anyway.















Partypoker And All Those Damn Comment Spammers Got Me Down

If you look down at the bottom of the page you’ll see a new form for posting comments. That’s because, today, I spent three hours of my time trying to save this blog from comment spammers.
I realized the problem was out of hand when four things happened:
# MT-Blacklist was catching about 7 attempted comment spammings a day
# MT-Blacklist was letting about 3 attempted comment spammings a day get past, requiring me to check new comments daily and try to both delete spam and add new spam terms to the blacklist
# I realized I couldn’t keep up with all of the new pharmaceuticals being released
# I added “google” and “thanks” to the blacklist
Just like they have almost ruined e-mail for the rest of us, spammers are trying to ruin blogs. They’re jumping on blogs with any kind of Google PageRank (the good stuff that makes you come at the top of a page of search results) and posting links to other sites. The effect is that these other sites get soome PageRank of their own from that link, and go up in Google results. So, my blog makes credit repair ripoff scammers and Viagra peddlers get good Google results.
I suppose I should be flattered that I have enough PageRank that the spammers bother to visit. But mostly I’m annoyed that they post comments that add nothing to the value of my blog at all. I go to quite some trouble to create something of minimal value here! Goddamn leeches.
So I did what I had to do. I upgraded to “MovableType 3″:http://movabletype.org featuring “TypeKey”:http://typekey.com. Theoretically, this means that you can only post a comment if:
* I review your comment and deem it ok to publish
* You have a TypeKey
I can’t get the second part to work, unfortunately, so at the moment I have to review all comments. This sucks about as much as having to watch out for spammers. Hopefully I’ll be able to figure out what’s wrong in a few days to a couple of weeks; otherwise I’ll probably just turn off commenting. Ah well, such is the tragedy of the commons.
After removing my old copy of MT-Blacklist (see “the MT Forums”:http://www.movabletype.org/support/index.php?act=ST&f=27&t=45952&hl=&s=47961fbd08d29468aab3c1d3dfdcd3fd), all is well. Comments are automatically posted, and community lives! Ha ha, I have defeated the spammers for hours, even days! Mwa ha ha!















The White House Won’t Take My Official Concession Phone Call

Well, the apparently oft-underestimated Mr. Bush has done it again. And this time, better, which is actually a good thing because, well, if Bush can learn to get elected better maybe he can learn to fight world terrorism and fix the economy better too.
All yesterday everyone had heard all about the big turnout, which would usually be a bad thing for Bush because:
* In the past, non-voters have been overwhelmingly working-class and minorities, both of whom skew very Democratic
* Who schleps out to the polling place if they don’t want a change?
This election broke both of those trends. The new turn-out? Didn’t skew Democrat, didn’t want a change. But hopefully, that doesn’t mean four more years of the same. I can’t imagine that we can go forward without doing something about:
* The deficit
* The rising cost of health care
* Potential non-positive long-term outcomes in Iraq and even Afghanistan
* Nukes in Iran
Bush now has a mandate. Four years ago, before he showed his true colors, he managed to get No Child Left Behind through which, while an awful idea, was at least a moderately interesting attempt at change. I’m hopeful that we’ll see some moderately interesting attempts at change in the future. But I wouldn’t bet on it. What would I bet on?
* Deficit gets bigger
* Market goes up, but not over 11,500 in the next 4 years as the economy never really takes off
* Unemployment goes “down” as average income of bottom quartile goes “down” (translation: poorest 25% lose their jobs, take worse-paying jobs)
* Unemployment goes “down” as more unemployed give up
* Afghanistan becomes a narco-state; central government only really controls Kabul area
* “Elections” in Iraq lead to a central government that only controls a small area
* Kurdish part of Iraq returns to functioning as an effective seperate state
* Iran’s influence in Iraq becomes immense
* US airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Iran topple Tony Blair’s government (soon!)
* North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
That’s enough depressing news for one morning, but, in four years, we can come back and see how right I was (or wasn’t, hopefully). But I’m conceding, so here’s this:
“George W. Bush, I hereby give you the full opportunity to prove me wrong.”
Now, for all you who live in the US, here’s what people outside the country think:
* UK: “The Times Of London”:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1342352,00.html, “Financial Times”:http://news.ft.com/cms/s/06215216-2cf5-11d9-8b8d-00000e2511c8.html, “The Economist”:http://economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3351176, “BBC”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3979367.stm
* Israel: “The Jerusalem Post”:http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1099371832541
* Arab World: “Al Jazeera”:http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/6DC94177-CE5C-4709-883F-4A7BE5731F4F.htm
* Italy: “Corriere Della Sera”:http://www.corriere.it/speciali/2004/Esteri/usa2004/elezioni/articoli/index18.shtml
* Germany: “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”:http://www.faz.net/s/Rub4E0C8B0039F9415BB1D2F75B1FAA5E77/Doc~E7E4705921F844F2880416ED163BEA0E0~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html
* France: “Le Monde”:http://www.lemonde.fr/, “Le Figaro”:http://www.lefigaro.fr/etatsunis2004/20041103.FIG0388.html
* Spain: “El Mundo”:http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2004/11/03/internacional/1099479564.html, “ABC”:http://www.abc.es/abc/pg041103/actualidad/internacional/internacional/200411/03/NAC-INT-046.asp
* China: “China Daily News”:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/03/content_388191.htm
(I’ve tried to be as “fair and balanced” as I can be in selecting news sources, modulo who updates regularly and and who doesn’t make you pay for content.)
Happy reading! And happy next four years, majority of voters!
(Note: Yes, I did take the Kerry banner and electoral vote count off of my site. No, not because I’m embarassed at having backed a loser. The election’s over, so why tease?)