Juniorbird.com — The Great Treo Quest

Published Jun 7, 2005

I want a Treo 650. I covet a Treo 650. Remarkably, I even need a Treo 650. Yet, somehow, there doesn’t seem to be a Treo 650 in the Greater Phoenix area. Truly, I am an oppressed victim of the system.

It all started when I got here on Saturday; no cell phone reception. Sunday, I drove around and got occasional reception. Monday, more driving around, less signal. I do not believe it is possible, in the 21st century, for an individual under 40 to live for an extended period without cell phone service. Certainly, I cannot live like that. Every day I make my way without this phone I think of more friends — good people, special people, people with whom, I admit, I haven’t spoken in a year — I need to call. It’s torture to actually have to interact with individuals geographically proximal to me for entertainment.

So, with no cell service, I did what anybody would do as a very last resort: I called Cingular. Apparently the Cingular network in Phoenix is provided by AT&T Wireless (since acquired by Cingular), and my phone is too old to be compatible with that network. I have two choices:

Get a new phone
Begin to live in the last century

So I decided to get a new phone. I’d coveted the Treo 650 for some time now — it syncs with Outlook, it runs all sorts of programs, it’s got a keyboard, and it’s kinda slick-looking. I’ve had my Nokia 3650 for two years and I’ve got an upgrade coming to me, so I drove to the nearest Cingular store. The woman in line in front of me got the last Treo in the store; so I went to another store. No Treo there either! I called the third Cingular store and they were out too. Fry’s was, similarly, sold out, and Sprint was out-of-stock as well. Verizon only has the Treo 600 and I can’t live without Bluetooth.

Being a (for the moment) 21st-century inhabitant, I jumped on the Web to get a Treo. Well, Cingular’s Web site crashed on me, and the only vendors who would sell me a Treo and overnight it wanted over $500 for it. So I broke down and decided to speak with an actual human being and called 611 on my rommate’s Cingular phone. Can I use the word Cingular enough? Cingular Cingular Cingular.

Anyway so I called Cingular. Three times. No joy. Transferred into the ether; transferred to the wrong person; sorry, by now the department you’re calling is closed.

I’d get mad, but I want my gadget too much to think of anything but its imminent acquisition. I’ll get mad later. Until then, I need to decide:

Do I call local stores every day to see if a Treo becomes available, and then drive over and acquire the item immediately?
Do I call Cingular and order the phone now, and wait 5 business days for it to be delivered?

I want my Treo 650! Waaah!

4 Comments

Mango Chili Pop | June 8, 2005 6:04 AM

i’d order it and wait the 5 bus days. i’ve been in similar situations before and because i wanted the item immediately, and thought for some reason that i could get it much faster than if it were mailed to me, i’d go searching all over town for it, never find it, then three days later wish i would’ve ordered it because it’d be only 2 more days ‘til i got it in the mail. i would call the stores, ask how long ‘til they get a shipment, then either wait or order online ASAP. salud!

juniorbird | June 8, 2005 9:55 AM

That’s actually how I was thinking yesterday. Being a good business school student, however, I decided to build a model to help me see which approach I should take. This model contained a few assumptions:

There was a 1/3 chance that, if I waited to get a phone, the Cingular store would get them in stock and sell out before I could get one for myself
The Cingular store had already re-ordered them and was anticipating delivery between Wednesday and Saturday (per my conversation with store staff)
If I ordered from customer service, the phone would take 3-6 business days to arrive
The odds of the phone arrriving were evenly distributed across all days on which the phone could arrive (except for rounding for convenience)
If I was unable to buy a Treo locally by Saturday, I would order one on the phone on Sunday

So, the objective of this model is to pick the strategy that will give me the highest chance of having a Treo soon. Will it be:

Try to get one locally, then order one on the phone on Sunday
Order it on the phone now

Here’s how the odds worked out:

StrategyWThFSaSuMTuWThFSaSuMTu115%15%15%15%0%0%0%0%8%8%0%0%8%6%1-Cum15%30%45%60%60%60%60%60%68%76%76%76%84%100%20%0%17%0%0%17%17%17%17%15%----2-Cum0%0%17%17%17%34%51%68%85%100%----

So the first line is the chance that I’ll get the phone on a given day given strategy 1, and the second line is the cumulative chance that I will have recieved the phone on that day or on a previous day, again given strategy one, and so on for strategy two. As you can see, strategy two is only more optimal on next Thursday or afterwards; strategy one (try to buy the phone here) gives me a better chance of getting the Treo until that date, and a not much worse chance after that date. So I’m going with strategy 1.

Mango Chili Pop | June 8, 2005 10:31 AM

umm, ok. so what’s the answer? hey, what’s up with the “Brazilian Gay” ad on your site? that’s weird.

juniorbird | June 8, 2005 10:39 AM

Sorry about it, it took a minute to make the comment display right.

I haven’t seen the “Brazillian Gay” ad but I guess I’m not too surprised, I have a lot of Brazil entries from PRIME. Google will do that to ya I guess!